Arbit gyan: September 2008

Thursday, September 11, 2008

I hate to say I told you so ...

This article on the New York Times ends with a very interesting set of paragraphs:

"For now, the preparation for the debate and the sessions with Mr. Gibson are one and the same. Aides have developed a set of presumed questions and answers that they are walking Ms. Palin through.

Aides traveling with Ms. Palin have reported back to associates that she is a fast study — asking few questions of her policy briefers but quickly repeating back their main points — who already has considerable ease and experience before cameras.

A former aide in Alaska who had helped prepare Ms. Palin for her campaign debates there said she had a talent for distilling information into digestible sound bites. The aide said she generally prefers light preparatory materials to heavy briefing books, and prefers walking through potential questions and answers with aides to holding mock sessions."

Will she be able to play the part after three weeks plus of practice? Yes. Will Biden annhilate her? No. Will the Republicans declare she is qualified? Yes. Is this proof she is qualified? Not unless acting was high on the list of Presidential or Vice Presidential pre-requisite qualifications.

I hate to say it ... but I told you so.

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Why blame Nero?

The surreal dissonance of the media in the US is not very far from the tales of Nero fiddling while Rome burned. And, unlike the tales of Nero, this one is actually true.

Let me first of all apologize for repeating the inaccurate story about Nero. He couldn't possibly have fiddled in the great fire in Rome. First of all, the fiddle hadn't been invented. Also, accounts by historians alive at the time suggest that his palace burned down and that he took people in after the fire and gave them aid and comfort. The distortion was probably an effort to sully the historical record of Emperor Nero

What is happening currently in the US is, on the hand, is flabbergasting. We are now discussing Lippygate, Bristol Palin and bridges to nowhere. You'd think that we were in a daytime soap opera or a bad Lifetime movie. If you listened to the news you'd never guess the magnitude of the challenges that confront the US. Let me try running through a few:

The US just narrowly avoided a financial meltdown largely by getting the already overextended US government taking on $5 Trillion in mortgage debt. However, this is not the end. The crisis has already forced Citibank to cede a huge part of its capital to Arabs, forced the closure/sale of Bear Sterns, Countrywide and Indymac, is forcing massive asset divestment by a bunch of banks (Lehman being the latest), and its far from done. The US government is not made of money. How much further will it go? How much worse will it get?

Meanwhile, US unemployment just crossed the threshold of the theoretical full employment and the psychological barrier of 6%, and it shows no signs of reducing. Some economists point out that this is among the softest slowdowns in US history. The problem is that the slowdown hasn't really peaked. In fact, its only just starting. And, by the looks of things, the government and the Fed have few fiscal and monetary options left. What now?

The international situation is creating a whole new set of issues. Russia's dominance is of concern as is China's growing power. Meanwhile, other problems are brewing. The melting Arctic is fast becoming a disputed area between great powers over oil and key trading routes, Pakistan is increasingly a terrorist haven leaving the US with no good options, North Korea might shortly change guard, Russia just sent a couple of bombers to Venezuela on training (reminds of you something?), India just arrested a bunch of smugglers with Uranium yellow cake (where was it headed?) and the old issues like Palestine and Africa still linger.

The ice caps are melting, and whether we agree on the nature of global warming, we need to find some radical solutions as our current infrastructure and agricultural approach won't sustain the world's energy and food demands post such warming.

The aggregate US debt is an eye popping $9 trillion dollars. It rises by $1.6 billion a day. This does not include the unfunded social security and other social commitments. It doesn't include the $5 trillion the US government has taken on through Fannie and Freddie. Even with these exclusions, the national debt is about to hit a 50 year high by 2010. The government will owe roughly $90K per household. How is the US going to meet this?

This doesn't even begin to discuss the education gap in the US, the unending involvement in Iraq, the unsustainability of personal debt levels, the declining middle class incomes, health care, etc.

Is America so enamored by the near mythical version of Rome so admired by its founding fathers, that it has decided to blindly emulate the callousness that Nero was so egregiously accused of?

Saturday, September 6, 2008

I predict!

In recent media coverage, there has been suggestion that Palin's weaknesses could be exposed in the upcoming days in interviews. It seems from this report that the McCain camp realizes that the media have smelt blood and are keeping her under wraps.

Others in media suggest that Biden will rip her to shreds. Let me make a prediction - he won't! And, the more the media hypes that Biden will annhilate Palin, the more likely it is that after the VP debates, McCain will get a huge bump.

So, why do I disagree with the media?

The issue is that the debates are not really debates. They are just an espousing of talking points juxtaposed against one another. There are about 20 topics of national importance ranging from economic issues, social issues and national defense issues. or controversies surrounding the candidates. Each speaker gets to speak for between 2 to 5 minutes on these. You can choose to speak less. That means you need to memorize about 5 points per issue, about 3 attack points refuting your opponent and about 3 to 5 memorable lines. All these are crafted in advance, and you just have to deliver them.

Its very tough to do this if you are in the primaries. The reason is that you have to come up with the policies with your team in a way that will be consistent with your views, consistent with the party base, and yet separate you from the pack. Most importantly, in the primaries, the candidate has to make these calls.

In Sarah Palin's case, she doesn't have to make a single call. All the points she has to parrot are already developed as part of McCain's platform. She has almost no record to speak of, so there are no inconsistencies to explain. Biden has a much harder task. Also, with no pronouncements of her own, she has only to defend McCain, whereas Biden has to defend himself and his record as well as Obama's.

So, the question is, can Sarah Palin memorize about 100 minutes of content in three weeks? If she can, then the only chance the media has to throw her off is by intimidating her,by asking a question that the Rove camp has calculated would never be asked, that is, the media person should ask her a question like, "Ms. Palin, you say your ticket is for family values, but McCain is a former divorcee who had an affair while still married, and now there are revelations and rumors about your own infidelities." The commentator would be crucified as inappropriate, but the net impact would be devastating for Palin. My guess, the media won't go there, so be prepared for Palin to be hailed as a hero.

Rumors abound ...

There seems to be a lot of rumors about the new VP pick and the right wing darling. There are two just released on the net which, if true, could turn out to be more explosive than some of the ones that have already been revealed.

The first alleges that despite her husband being part Eskimo, Palin is actually quite racist and extremely vindictive. The vindictive bit seems very believable. In fact, UK blogs are drawing comparisons to Margaret Thatcher. The difference being that Thatcher was definitely an elite aristocrat, whereas Palin is unashamedly 'of the people', and seems to have the same disdain for knowledge that Bush seems to exhibit.

Another rumor is that Palin had an affair with her husband's business partner. The newspaper doing the reporting in the latter case is the National Enquirer, which would have made it completely unbelievable, except that they did get the Edwards allegation right.

Racism is not really news. In fact, the implicit association test suggests that most Americans harbor a certain degree of racism, which even hundreds of attempts to rectify doesn't eliminate. The only confirmed way of reducing racism is having positive stereotypes (the unintended consequence of a potential Barack Obama presidency?) Nor does her sexual peccadilloes have any bearing on effectiveness as a President. After all, Bill Clinton, Johnson and Kennedy were notorious womanizers. However, if these prove to have a semblance of truth, watch the MSM go crazy.

Hilarity on youtube ...

Youtube videos can be quite crass. These are some old ones (NSFW), but very funny. Enjoy.

Prabhudeva making a spalsh on youtube.

This is a prank caller on QVC. He may have helped sales.

TV personalities losing their cool.

Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Sarah Palin is a good debater

Here she is at the debates for her run for Governor. She's a good debater. The format suited her, given that she is a former beauty queen and should be used to providing quick soundbites.