A day in politics is a long time ...

How much can change in a few hours in politics.

Last night, with soaring speeches from Obama and after the full throated support from Hillary, Bill and Gore over the last few days, Obama seemed on his way to garnering support from a united Democratic party. McCain's brilliant move of selecting Sarah Palin has completely changes the picture.

Sarah Palin not only undercuts the historic nature of Obama's candidacy, by offering an alternate history making ticket, but also goes directly after the disgruntled Hillary voters. Even non disgruntled women may now be torn between a charismatic woman and Obama, and many may reconsider their allegiances.

Sarah Palin is a former beauty pageant winner, and was runners up in the Miss Alaska beauty pageant. She has five children, including one with Down's syndrome, born just a few months ago. Her positions are staunchly conservative, which makes matters even more interesting, particularly with respect to women's right to choose.

On the other hand, this is a pick that is blatantly designed to win the election and not to govern. Given McCain's age, there is a higher than usual chance that Sarah will land up in the Presidential spot. However, Palin has little experience, little record on giving thought to national issues. and is almost completely unvetted, all of which undercuts McCain's argument that Obama is not qualified. Moreover, she's a relative newcomer, which is a good thing in some ways but may mean a lot of skeletons which the electorate may not be familiar with.

The one mistake that the Democrats might make is in understimating her. Especially, assuming that Biden could rip her in the debates might be a mistake. Biden has to tread lightly. There are accounts of her being a formidable opponent. And, even if she isn't, no one likes to see an old man beating up on an attractive woman. He has to make her look incompetent, not come across as a "bad man".

Another potential issue by McCain is that this pick is likely to divert conversation about Obama's qualifications to McCain's judgment and Sarah Palin's qualification. As long as there was a laser focus on Obama's qualification, Obama kept slipping in the polls. With questions on both sides, there may be more reason to consider actual positions, and on issues, the Democrats lead handily. McCain is probably hoping that the Democrats and media go overboard in their attacks against Sarah Palin, causing women to rally behind her because of allegations of misogyny, helping him split the women's vote. If that's what he's calculated, he may not have factored in the Clintons. Sarah Palin as VP undercuts Hillary's achievement, and should she run for President in 2012, it would reduce Hillary's of ever becoming President. So much so, that Hillary may now actually be tempted to campaign for Obama and mean it. After all, Hillary would be younger than McCain is today after eight years.

All in all, this is now a toss up. I had given Obama less than 33% chance of winning. This decision makes such discussions of odds difficult. It all depends on how Sarah Palin does. If she's incompetent, she can do serious damage to McCain. If she's a good campaigner, she'll be a huge asset. I still give McCain the edge, but frankly, its hard to know what will happen at this stage. Its getting interesting :)